The Yankees' Coming Nightmare

Assuming Randy Johnson and everyone else involved in his trade pass their physicals, in 2005, the New York Yankees will spend $64 million on their five starting pitchers. Rumor has it that they could also add Carlos Beltran to their lineup in the next few days. If that happens, their total payroll will likely be more than $220 million (all of which would, of course, be better used helping the victims of the tsunami).

The array of talent will be the greatest ever on a single ballclub and they could win 115 games next year. Or they could go through a nightmare scenario like none seen in New York since last October.

A pitching staff of Johnson, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright would have been unstoppable in 1997. It might be unstoppable now, too. But it might not be. It might be simply old. Randy Johnson will be 42 next year. He has pitched more than 200 innings every year but one since 1996. But two years ago, he pitched just 114 innings and won just six games.

Mussina just turned 36 and had arm troubles that limited him to 164 innings and a 4.59 ERA. Kevin Brown turns 40 in March. He pitched just 122 innings and had an ERA of more than 4. Pavano had a big year last year, but he's 29 and has won more than ten games in a year only twice. And Wright had a great season last year, winning 15 with the Braves, but he has a lifetime ERA of 5.09. If everything goes right with this rotation, it could win 80 games or more on its own. If not, it could win 35.

Mariano Rivera was human down the stretch. Middle relief is always iffy. The Yankees middle staff has been awesome, but middle relief is an iffy proposition at best.

As for the starting lineup, it is incredible, even without Beltran. But it was incredible last year, too, and the year before that. In fact, it has been since the mid 90s. And in no year since 2000 has it been good enough to win a World Series. The problem with the Yankees is that Steinbrenner's first rule is that anything less than a World Series win might as well be a total loss.

Last year, after the Yankees got Alex Rodriguez, they were supposed to be automatic World Series champions. This winter, it is the Red Sox who celebrate. Next winter, it might be the Yankees. But then again, it might not be.